Concerns about the impact of the October Budget, as well as higher energy costs this winter, are likely to have an impact on fragile consumer confidence, warns hospitality buying specialist Lynx Purchasing.
“The recent cut in interest rates, along with lower inflation, had offered a glimmer of hope to hospitality operators in terms of persuading consumers to eat out,” said Lynx Purchasing managing director Rachel Dobson.
“However, the prosect of changes to some taxes, including to pensions and inheritance, will concern many ‘grey pound’ consumers, who are a mainstay for many businesses. Add to that pensioners losing their Winter Fuel Allowance just as it becomes clear energy prices will increase again this winter, and hospitality operators will understandably have concerns about consumer spending in the run-up to the all-important festive trading season.”
The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the Autumn 2024 edition of its regular Market Forecast, using exclusive insight supplied by the range of suppliers that Lynx Purchasing works with, as well as official inflation data, to look at food and drink pricing across the autumn trading period.
Product areas flagged up the Market Forecast include:
Beef: Beef production continues to be below usual levels after some producers cut back on the size of herds in response to lower retail prices. This is pushing up the price of steaks and prime cuts, making less used cuts a better value choice for hospitality menus.
Fish: With some cod quotas expected to see significant reductions next year, Autumn is a good time to persuade customers to try a broader range of fish, with UK species such as plaice, sole and monkfish in good supply, as well as farmed white fish from further afield.
Potatoes: The potato crop in both the UK and Europe was severely impacted by the floods earlier in the year, which reduced the land available for planting. The continued impact will mean significantly higher prices for many frozen potato products across the rest of the year.
Coffee and Cocoa: The impact of extreme weather has hit crops, leading to a sharp increase in global commodity prices. With chocolate a key ingredient of many desserts, operators should factor in higher costs when planning festive menus.
“Our insights show that while suppliers have largely factored in the impact of the flooding earlier in the year, higher costs become more significant if consumers are cautious about eating out. Extreme weather is, by its nature, unpredictable and there may be more shocks in the supply chain to come as autumn turns to winter,” added Dobson.
“However, as the queues outside Jeremy Clarkson’s pub on opening day showed, there is strong consumer interest in menus which feature seasonal British produce. Working with suppliers to offer produce when it’s at its best in terms of quality, value and availability is one way to mitigate any consumer reluctance to spend.”
A FREE copy of the Autumn 2024 Lynx Purchasing Market Forecast can be downloaded from the website at www.lynxpurchasing.co.uk
